A study of the controversy over the oil factor in the Caspian basin and its implications for Armenian foreign policy-making

Abstract

This Policy Internship Paper is an attempt to discover the shifts in foreign policy orientations of the Caspian states, particularly those related to oil (Azerbaijan, Kazakhstan, Turkmenistan, and Georgia) during first years of their independence, and reveal its reflections on Armenian foreign policy-making. The Department of Political Planning and Analysis of Ministry of Foreign Affairs has provided immediate help and supported with the necessary information in the process of work on the paper. The South Caucasus, a region full of tensions and conflicts, is a center of confrontation of great power interests (Russia, the U.S., and regional powers). They all try to enlarge the zones of their influence by taking oil exploitation processes under their control. In a region where the economy is mixed with politics, it’s hard to expect predictability in foreign policies. In addition, the question of pipelines for Caspian oil has proven particularly susceptible to politicization. In fact, this is a zero-sum game, which especially restrains competition around the oil. Armenia, as a non-oil state, however, is a pivotal country in the Caucasus, and developments in the region are directly reflected on Armenian foreign policy. being a landlocked country and because of the threat of being isolated from the regional cooperation, pipeline projects, Armenia should make maximum efforts to be fully involved in regional economic programs and exercise a foreign policy allowing to act equally with others and bringing utmost benefits to the Republic of Armenia.