The role of oil in the formation of Azerbaijan’s foreign policy

Abstract

Oil is one of the significant commodities which revenues are higher than revenues of any other natural resource including gas. The present paper discusses the role of oil in the formation of Azerbaijan’s foreign policy towards Nagorno-Karabakh conflict. The research is restricted to the period between 2003, when Ilham Aliyev came to power, and 2015. This period is also significant due to the construction of BTC in 2006, which enabled Azerbaijan to increase its oil exports significantly. The paper discusses whether Azerbaijan’s foreign policy became more aggressive with changes in oil revenues. The research uses a mixed-method. First, the relationship between oil revenues and military expenditure is established; which turned to be positive. Second, speeches and statements of Azerbaijani officials were analyzed that showed that drastic changes in oil revenues resulted in more aggressive rhetoric from the Azerbaijani officials. Finally, interviews conducted with experts and diplomats demonstrated that Azerbaijan uses oil revenues to improve its image abroad and enhance anti-Armenian policy. Lastly, it is shown that oil revenues enable Azerbaijan to utilize vastly ‘brinkmanship’ in NK issue and receive nearly no criticism for its foreign policy from the international community.