A study of Nagorno Karabakh conflict: towards meaningful mediation

Abstract

Given the complex nature of the Nagorno Karabakh conflict, its root causes and contesting territorial claims revolving around the territories adjacent to Nagorno-Karabakh and the political status of the entity itself, the study attempts to assess the major challenges and obstacles that stand on the way of the OSCE Minsk Group mediators for a successful engagement in Karabakh conflict. Because of the complex historical dispute revolving around the status of Nagorno-Karabakh, the paper introduces a brief summary of the turning points in the history of the entity, as well as the central events leading to the breakup of the conflict as background knowledge. The central concern of the essay is the identification and analysis of the main challenges that the OSCE Minsk Group co-chairs face in their attempts to resolve the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict. It analyzes the intertwined nature of strategic/tactical barriers (e.g. the political status of Nagorno-Karabakh and security, transfer of territories and return of refugees) underlying Nagorno-Karabakh conflict that have attracted the primary attention of the OSCE mediators and posed a major challenge to an effective conflict resolution. It then turns to the analysis of social-psychological dimensions (e.g. misinterpretations of history, propaganda and dehumanization of the other side) and structural/institutional obstacles (e.g. Nagorno-Karabakh as a secondary party to conflict) of the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict as well as assesses their impact on the OSCE Minsk Group mediation efforts to broker a peaceful agreement to the conflict. The paper also focuses on the analysis of different proposals made by the OSCE co-chairs and discussed by the parties to the conflict as a source for the identification and analysis of major flaws in the OSCE mediation. Informed by the analysis of major obstacles underlying the Karabakh conflict, the paper concludes with the layout of the strategy for more comprehensive conflict resolution in the Nagorno Karabakh conflict.