The problem of Javakhk in regional security: a study of potentials for an ethnic conflict

Abstract

The purpose of this Master’s Essay is to examine today’s tense situation in Javakhk, Georgia, which is a geopolitically important region with a large and compactly living Armenian population and an area of interest for major powers. The study examines several factors which can trigger a conflict in Javakhk. One of them is the possible repatriation of Meskhetian Turks into Javakhk. The findings show that this factor by itself is sufficient for triggering large scale ethnic conflict. The study also looks at the political situation in Javakhk which Georgian as well as Armenian governments do not want to consider and address. The study shows that the danger of the situation rests upon the fact that in terms of lack of an adequate reaction to the existing political tension in the region and absence of efforts to transmit it into the way of a constructive and controllable dialogue the tension could be negatively used by third parties. The paper also discusses severe socio-economic and cultural problems of the region, which, as analysis shows, are results of special minority policies pursued by Georgian government. The withdrawal of Russian military base from Javakhk is also discussed in the essay. The study concludes that it is a factor which would affect an important sector of the population, the economy of which is related to the base, yet, it is wrong to consider base as a factor for development. Another issue examined by this study is planned construction of Baku-Tbilisi-Kars railroad. The findings indicate clearly that this factor can have dangerous implications for Javakhk and Armenia as it would consolidate the Azerbaijan-Georgia-Turkey axes. Finally, the study looks at interests of different major powers for which Javakhk and the internal policies of Georgia are of significant importance. It is argued that further neglect and inactions of Georgian as well as Armenian governments with regard to the problems in the region can turn Javakhk into potential trouble spot for Georgia and can have very dangerous implications for the regional security.